December 7, 2007 >> return to MAI in the news
With Columbia expansion, prices expected
to head north in northern Manhattan
Despite less active commercial market, expansion set to increase values
in West Harlem's Manhattanville
By Amanda Baltazar
Adjina Dekidjiev
rental operations manager
An excerpt:
Columbia University's expansion plan has some brokers predicting that the area just north of Morningside Heights, one of the last affordable frontiers in Manhattan, will see property values surge by as much as 20 percent.
The nearly $6 billion plan, which would double the size of the Ivy League school's campus, won approval from the City's Planning Commission late last month during a combative public meeting and now goes to the City Council for final approval.
The plan has been met with staunch opposition from some in the community, including property owners who will be pushed out by the new research facilities, dormitories and other buildings. But many say the proposed redevelopment of the 17-acre swath, bounded by 129th and 133rd streets between Broadway and 12th Avenue, will mean higher prices for all of the properties in its path.
So far, Manhattanville has managed to retain its mom-and-pop operations, fast-food joints, garages, warehouses, car repair shops, bodegas and other locally owned storefronts. But academic facilities and college students are often followed by mega chains like Starbucks, Barnes & Noble, Dunkin' Donuts and Duane Reade, which tend to accelerate gentrification and jack up property prices. And other areas slated for massive re-development recently in the city, like Coney Island, have also seen increases in property values before the shovels hit the ground.
Adjina Dekidjiev, the rental operations manager for Manhattan Apartments Inc., predicted that "everything is going to increase at least 20 percent, both for buying and renting apartments," which will be a boon for both individual apartment owners as well as building landlords.
She said rents in the area, which are still lower than they are for comparable apartments below 96th Street, will steadily increase over the next five years. That is despite the fact that, if approved, the first phase of Columbia's expansion won't be complete until 2015, and the entire project won't be done until around 2030.
At the moment, a standard studio rents for $1,100 to $1,200 in Manhattanville compared to a minimum of $1,500 below 96th Street. And some Manhattanville two-bedrooms can be purchased for around $500,000, a price that many consider a steal for a one-bedroom farther south.
Dekidjiev said she thinks those who live in the neighborhood now will likely be forced to move farther north in Manhattan to Inwood and Washington Heights as they are financially squeezed out.
That expectation is turning Manhattanville into a prime investment area. But while the brokers and investors who stand to benefit from the increased prices may welcome the expansion, many of those who own and live in Manhattanville are concerned.
Manhattanville residents -- who are worried about being displaced, about the possible use of eminent domain, and about the rising cost of rent -- have not been shy about voicing their anger.
Earlier this year, a draft environmental impact statement found that nearly 3,584 residents will be forced out of their homes between 2015 and 2030, and around 85 businesses will be displaced, leading to the loss of 880, mostly blue-collar, jobs.
Columbia is arguing that not only is the expansion vital for its growth as an academic institution, but also that the project will benefit the community by creating 9,000 permanent new jobs.
Under a deal reached with the borough president, Scott Stringer, the university has also agreed to the creation of a $20 million affordable housing fund and to pitch in additional money for local parks and playgrounds. And it plans to construct environmentally friendly buildings.
But those who will be displaced have not been easily pacified. If housing prices suddenly skyrocket there, those improvements will do the many renters in the area no good because they won't be able to afford living there, they say.
Dekidjiev said that while it will be good for real estate, this is one of the few areas that has not yet been drastically altered by massive development.
"We're torn because we're in real estate, but at the same time it's disappointing, and I think in the next 30 years [with development like this], we won't recognize the city," she said.